Let's bet on this shit

America’s hottest collab is really, really stupid

On Tuesday, Kalshi announced a partnership with CNN to incorporate Kalshi’s probability data into CNN’s news reporting. Prediction market Kalshi and its popular competitor Polymarket are financial exchanges based on gambling. As the nation struggles with a rampant sports betting crisis fueling debt and addiction, prediction markets pose the important question: “What if we did that, but worse?”

Through Kalshi and Polymarket, you can make extremely ghoulish bets, like the probability of Israel striking Gaza. Or how many cases of measles and whooping cough America will see during the Trump administration. The idea of random individuals betting on real human tragedy is truly obscene. And yet, one of America’s biggest media outlets is gleefully partnering with Kalshi, ushering in an era of wagering on the news. Kalshi’s co-founder recently stated that Kalshi's long-term vision is to “financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion.” Yeah great idea, let’s create millions of Uncut Gems Adam Sandlers ready to risk it all on the question of whether more Epstein files will be released before GTA VI. (Did we forget there are real victims of Jeffrey Epstein and his associates? Genuinely, what is wrong with people?)

Although the CNN-Kalshi partnership is the first one of its kind, more will follow. Prediction market businesses believe they should enter mainstream media because they think they can predict the news. No, seriously. Polymarket’s CEO says the prediction market is the “most accurate thing we have as mankind right now.”

Despite Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s young founders waxing poetic about their allegedly ingenious exchanges, prediction markets date back to at least the 1500s, and therefore are not new or revolutionary. The reason we have not used them for news over the past several centuries is because they should not function as news. One reason being that prediction markets can just simply be wrong. They are vulnerable to misinformation, bias, and bubbles. And, they are easy to manipulate. In the last week before the 2024 presidential election, Bloomberg reported that Polymarket bettors were boosting Trump’s odds. Just this week, 404 Media reported that fake maps were created to manipulate Polymarket bets on battles between Ukraine and Russia. (Abhorrent, degenerative behavior. What is wrong with people?!)

No amount of Silicon Valley hype will make me think prediction markets can positively revolutionize information. Kalshi and its competitors highlight the perils of the tech industry, which has produced several businesses propping up the U.S. economy despite having no real, tangible products. Predictions are not goods, and prediction markets are not a stable part of a healthy, productive economy.

Also, I know the bar for journalistic ethics in 2025 is extremely low, but I’m still somehow surprised by this move from CNN. Many outlets have recently reported on two lawsuits Kalshi is currently fighting, one in Nevada and one in New York. The Judge in the Nevada case recently ruled against Kalshi, finding Kalshi is subject to the state’s gaming laws. The New York lawsuit, which was just filed this week, alleges that “the platform has predominantly become an illegal sports betting site that secretly tricks consumers into rigged bets against the house, when they think they're betting against other users on the platform.” Connecticut issued a cease and desist letter to Kalshi and other prediction markets due to legal violations of the state’s gambling laws. From a search of CNN’s website, the outlet does not appear to have reported on any of these stories.

There are also concerns that markets like Kalshi invite insider trading. No investigational reporting from CNN on that, either. In fact, the most recent CNN story on Kalshi I can find is about how Kalshi failed to predict the election of Pope Leo XIV in May 2025. Will CNN cease to report on Kalshi and its legal issues in the wake of this wonderful partnership? Maybe something to wager on. Oh, and did I mention one of Kalshi’s strategic advisors is Donald Trump, Jr.? Surely no journalistic conflict of interest exists for CNN there. (DTJ is also on the board of Polymarket, so make of that what you will.)

Prediction markets don’t need partnerships with mainstream media. They need regulations. Unfortunately, there are basically none, which has led to the situation at hand. I ask the same question I feel like I’ve been shouting into the void for years: Can someone do something?

Sources:

https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-cnn-prediction-market-partnership

https://www.ncpgambling.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Sports-gambling_NCPGLitRvwExecSummary.pdf

https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379?tid=1764870948630

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxavgmeaslesdjt/measles-during-trump-admin/kxavgmeaslesdjt-29

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpertussis/pertussis-cases/kxpertussis-25

https://www.readtpa.com/p/the-company-betting-youll-bet-on

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfirstepsteingta/epstein-gta-first/kxfirstepsteingta-27

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prediction-markets-data-cnn-now-212318475.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-24/could-political-betting-swing-the-2024-us-presidential-election?embedded-checkout=true

https://scholarship.law.vanderbilt.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1012&context=faculty-publications

https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/dont-trust-the-political-prediction-markets